Gaining leverage over uncertainty doesn’t mean eliminating it—it means reducing its power over you while increasing your ability to act meaningfully despite it. ## 1. Reframe the relationship See uncertainty not as an *enemy* to conquer, but as *a condition to work with*. It’s the raw material of opportunity, learning, and evolution. Leverage comes from shaping your system (not your environment) to thrive in it. ## 2. Core strategies for leverage a. Build robust mental models • Know the difference between risk (measurable probabilities) and uncertainty (unknown unknowns). • Use probabilistic thinking, scenario planning, and second-order thinking to anticipate a range of outcomes. b. Position yourself asymmetrically • Seek high-upside, low-downside actions (“barbell strategies” à la Taleb). • Don’t try to predict the future perfectly—design for antifragility, where shocks benefit you more than they harm you. c. Increase adaptability • Instead of trying to reduce uncertainty, reduce your sensitivity to it: • Build slack into your time and finances. • Maintain optionality—don’t lock yourself into a single path. • Learn fast, iterate fast. The faster your feedback loop, the more power you have. d. Cultivate agency and clarity • The scarcer your clarity of intent, the more you’ll be at the mercy of external ambiguity. • Define your principles, not just your goals. • Anchor your actions in what you can control: judgment, decisions, and responses. e. Use tools of leverage: knowledge, code, and people • Learn from systems thinkers, probabilists, entrepreneurs. • Build tools (or use AI) to explore more permutations than your brain can hold. • Surround yourself with diverse thinkers who challenge blind spots. ## 3. Example in action > Imagine launching a product in an uncertain market. > Instead of guessing the perfect product, you test hypotheses quickly (lean startup). You structure it so one success can scale exponentially (asymmetric upside). You collect real-time feedback to learn. And you keep your costs low (robustness). > You haven’t removed the uncertainty—but now it works for you. ## 4. Mindset shifts From: “I must reduce uncertainty.” To: “I must reduce my fragility to uncertainty.” From: “I need answers.” To: “I need better questions and better bets.” From: “I need to be right.” To: “I need to survive and learn fast.”