#politics #imagine Get insights from hypothetical scenarios to inform the real-life decision making. -- Decision-making is fundamentally comparing the different futures that would develop from different choices. By thinking about what we want / don't want (observing the present reality on the standpoint of future), we would know what to do / not do. > 比如我们之前分享过的2016年兰德智库的那份著名报告《与中国之战》-- 兰德推出这篇报告，并不是他们当时认为美国会与中国开战；而是直接去设想那个不可设想之事。如果中美开战了，导火索会是什么，开战之后会发生什么，以及什么样的应对才是最合适的。然后告诉美国政府，怎样的做法能够尽量避免战争。这就是设想不可设想之事。